HANDICAPPING THE FAVORITES
Who will win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations? Assuming they won't all be knocked out in the preliminary rounds, I boldly handicap the leading contenders as of this date. Wish me luck!
DEMOCRATS
Clinton will hang in and take the lead. She is generally regarded as "safe" among about all groups of democrats. She may not be terribly exciting but she is establishment and stable. I suspect that's what most American voters want.
Obama will also hang in but not win. Potential voters are less certain about who he is and where he stands. They are not comfortable with their knowledge of what he would do under trying circumstances.
Edwards will fall by the wayside. Americans do not like poor people. Whether they're willing to admit it or not, there is among middle and upper classes in America a distinct dislike of poor people. You just have to watch people to see this contempt, really hatred, ooze out in their every face to face contact with poor people. Edwards, in making much of his poor background, unleashes this subterranean opposition. It will catch up to him and cost him the nomination.
REPUBLICANS
Giuliani will drop by the wayside among Republicans. When Americans look at Rudy Giuliani, they see the shadow of a New York ethnic thug. He looks the part, sounds the part, and some of his business dealings reflect the part. Most Americans simply will not be able to support such an image.
Romney, too, will fall aside. Too many Americans are too straitlaced fundamentalist to ever accept a member of a religious group as different as Mormonism from conventional or evangelical Christianity. His money will not buy him enough votes to get the nomination.
McCain has blown his chance. He was once truly a hero. He went through a lot in that Vietnam prision and conducted himself as a man of true character, strength, and courage. We all admire him for that. Unfortunately, he has abandoned that man and lost himself in a mad desire to be President. In that misdirected quest he aligned himself with George Bush and shadowed him like a dog during the 2006 Presidential election, accepting any abuse just to stay in the political spotlight. He has parroted the Bush line ever since. Hooking himself to the wrong star will cost him the nomination.
So who's left for the Republicans to nominate? I simply don't know. No other candidate looks like much of a prospect right now.
DEMOCRATS
Clinton will hang in and take the lead. She is generally regarded as "safe" among about all groups of democrats. She may not be terribly exciting but she is establishment and stable. I suspect that's what most American voters want.
Obama will also hang in but not win. Potential voters are less certain about who he is and where he stands. They are not comfortable with their knowledge of what he would do under trying circumstances.
Edwards will fall by the wayside. Americans do not like poor people. Whether they're willing to admit it or not, there is among middle and upper classes in America a distinct dislike of poor people. You just have to watch people to see this contempt, really hatred, ooze out in their every face to face contact with poor people. Edwards, in making much of his poor background, unleashes this subterranean opposition. It will catch up to him and cost him the nomination.
REPUBLICANS
Giuliani will drop by the wayside among Republicans. When Americans look at Rudy Giuliani, they see the shadow of a New York ethnic thug. He looks the part, sounds the part, and some of his business dealings reflect the part. Most Americans simply will not be able to support such an image.
Romney, too, will fall aside. Too many Americans are too straitlaced fundamentalist to ever accept a member of a religious group as different as Mormonism from conventional or evangelical Christianity. His money will not buy him enough votes to get the nomination.
McCain has blown his chance. He was once truly a hero. He went through a lot in that Vietnam prision and conducted himself as a man of true character, strength, and courage. We all admire him for that. Unfortunately, he has abandoned that man and lost himself in a mad desire to be President. In that misdirected quest he aligned himself with George Bush and shadowed him like a dog during the 2006 Presidential election, accepting any abuse just to stay in the political spotlight. He has parroted the Bush line ever since. Hooking himself to the wrong star will cost him the nomination.
So who's left for the Republicans to nominate? I simply don't know. No other candidate looks like much of a prospect right now.
posted by Jerry at 11:01 AM
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